Earthquake Aftershock Forecast Dashboard

Generated 2026-10-03T10:45:01.380144+00:00 · signal-aggregation demo, not an official hazard forecast

A daily-updating forecast of M≥5.0 aftershock risk across six major fault zones, combining classical earthquake decay-law physics with machine learning. Independent research project, not an official hazard system — see the honest backtest results for what's actually held up.

For official earthquake alerts and safety information, see usgs.gov.
Last updated: 2026-10-03 10:45:01 UTC (0.0h ago)
Recent runs (10)
2026-10-03 10:45:01 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-10-02 11:29:54 UTCSUCCESS113s6/6
2026-10-01 11:57:26 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-30 11:29:23 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-29 11:42:37 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-28 12:11:16 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-27 10:56:42 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-26 10:25:50 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-25 10:42:41 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
2026-09-24 10:39:01 UTCSUCCESS66s6/6
0 elevated
1 watch
5 low
Legend
E Tracked mainshock — elevated (size ∝ magnitude)
W Tracked mainshock — watch (size ∝ magnitude)
L Tracked mainshock — low (size ∝ magnitude)
  All M≥2.5 events, last 24h (USGS live feed) — informational only
Tracked fault zone boundary (click for forecast)
Fault zoneRecent mainshockPlain-Omori baselineML-1 only Agent debate only (isolated)Agent + ML-1 blend Combined (final)LabelActual outcome
Japan trench subduction zone M5.3 0 km NNE of Yōkaichiba, Japan 81.0% 42.4% 78.8% 63.3% 63.3% WATCH — pending ▾ details
Context modifier reasons:
No context-modifier adjustments fired.
Top contributing events:
M7.6 2025 Aomori Prefecture, Japan Earthquake (2025-12-08)M7.4 102 km ENE of Miyako, Japan (2026-04-20)M6.9 35 km ENE of Noda, Japan (2026-06-24)M6.8 15 km SE of Miyazaki, Japan (2025-01-13)M6.8 122 km E of Yamada, Japan (2025-11-09)
Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone M6.3 89 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska 49.1% 19.8% 42.8% 31.1% 31.1% LOW — pending ▾ details
Context modifier reasons:
No context-modifier adjustments fired.
Top contributing events:
M7.3 2025 Sand Point, Alaska Earthquake (2025-07-16)M7.0 2025 Hubbard Glacier Earthquake (2025-12-06)M6.3 89 km SSW of Nikolski, Alaska (2026-09-03)M6.2 91 km SSE of Sand Point, Alaska (2025-07-20)M6.0 12 km WNW of Susitna, Alaska (2025-11-27)
California / San Andreas system No active sequence 4.7% 2.8% 4.2% 3.5% 3.5% LOW — pending ▾ details
Context modifier reasons:
No context-modifier adjustments fired.
Top contributing events:
M5.7 2024 Parker Butte, Nevada Earthquake (2024-12-09)M5.7 20 km ESE of Silver Springs, Nevada (2026-04-14)M5.6 11 km N of Redwood Valley, CA (2026-06-24)M5.2 5 km S of Julian, CA (2025-04-14)M5.2 19 km SE of Silver Springs, Nevada (2026-05-01)
Cascadia subduction zone No active sequence 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% LOW — pending ▾ details
Context modifier reasons:
No context-modifier adjustments fired.
Top contributing events:
M4.7 53 km WNW of Petrolia, CA (2024-12-05)M4.6 31 km W of Petrolia, CA (2025-05-26)M4.5 2025 Orcas Island, Washington (2025-03-03)M4.4 40 km WNW of Petrolia, CA (2024-12-05)M4.4 31 km NNW of Covelo, CA (2026-08-05)
New Madrid seismic zone No active sequence 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% LOW — pending ▾ details
Context modifier reasons:
No context-modifier adjustments fired.
Top contributing events:
M4.0 1 km WNW of Cooter, Missouri (2026-04-23)M3.7 2 km E of Steele, Missouri (2024-11-03)M3.2 1 km SSW of Caruthersville, Missouri (2024-11-16)M3.1 4 km S of Puxico, Missouri (2025-09-06)M3.1 3 km SW of Blytheville, Arkansas (2025-08-01)
Oklahoma induced seismicity zone No active sequence 1.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% LOW — pending ▾ details
Context modifier reasons:
No context-modifier adjustments fired.
Top contributing events:
M5.0 38 km SSE of Spearman, Texas (2026-07-23)M3.7 8 km NW of Prague, Oklahoma (2025-09-28)M3.6 7 km ENE of Calumet, Oklahoma (2026-02-16)M3.6 8 km NW of Prague, Oklahoma (2025-09-28)M3.5 2 km ESE of Johnson, Oklahoma (2026-05-19)